In May of this year, Microsoft announced the public preview of SQL Server 2025 at the Build Conference. The big news is that SQL Server 2025 will include AI features. This is true whether the data is in the cloud or on-prem. Since then, it's been all crickets regarding the Official Launch (GA—general availability) of the updated database management system.
By combining a couple of factors, we can leverage AI to predict the most likely date that SQL Server 2025 will be launched to the public. By looking at historical release dates, past preview patterns, and the most significant indicator (large Microsoft Events), AI can give us a seemingly valid prediction. So yes, according to our back-of-the-napkin prediction, SQL Server 2025's official release date should be Wednesday, November 12, 2025.
This date follows Microsoft’s established 2 to 3 year release cycle and their propensity to launch major products in the back half of the year, as evidenced by recent SQL Server and Windows product release dates. Let’s break down the three most important factors that drove our November release guestimate: historical patterns, preview timelines, and scheduled events.
Why November 12, 2025 Is the Best Estimate According to These Three Indicators
Microsoft has not officially announced the GA date for SQL Server 2025, but several indicators point to mid-November:
- Historical Pattern: SQL Server 2019 and 2022 were released on November 4 and November 16, respectively, both early-to-mid November launches.
- Preview Timeline: SQL Server 2025 entered private preview in November 2024 and public preview in May 2025, following the same ~6-month preview-to-GA rhythm seen in previous releases.
- Event Alignment: Microsoft often times major releases with its Ignite conference, which runs November 18–21, 2025. A release just before Ignite would allow the company to showcase the product during the event.
Indicator #1 - Historical SQL Server Release Dates
| SQL Server Version | Release Date | Gap Since Previous |
|---|---|---|
| SQL Server 2008 | Nov 6, 2008 | – |
| SQL Server 2008 R2 | Jul 20, 2010 | ~20 months |
| SQL Server 2012 | May 20, 2012 | ~22 months |
| SQL Server 2014 | Jun 5, 2014 | ~24 months |
| SQL Server 2016 | Jun 1, 2016 | ~24 months |
| SQL Server 2017 | Sep 29, 2017 | ~16 months |
| SQL Server 2019 | Nov 4, 2019 | ~25 months |
| SQL Server 2022 | Nov 16, 2022 | ~36 months |
Key Takeaways - We have seen a shift from a two-year release cadence with the earlier version of SQL Server to a three-year release cycle with SQL Server 2022. So the November date adheres to this cycle. Mid-week launches are all the rage, and Microsoft is known to release Q4 products on a Tuesday or Wednesday.
Indicator #2 - Preview Milestones
The path that SQL Server 2025 is taking regarding preview rollout dates almost exactly mirrors that of SQL Server 2022. There is about a six-month gap between each important date. Below, we can see how the previews of SQL Server 2022 and 2025 mirror each other.
| Type | SQL Server 2022 | SQL Server 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Private Preview | Nov 2, 2021 | Nov 19, 2024 |
| Public Preview | May 24, 2022 | May 19, 2025 |
| Generally Available | Nov 16, 2022 | TBD |
Key Takeaways – Private previews began in November, with select partners gaining early access. Public preview was announced at the Build conference for both the 2022 & 2025 versions. Finally, there was a 6-month gap between the public preview and the official release of SQL Server 2022. All signs point to the same 6-month preview to general availability for SQL Server 2025.
Indicator #3 – Event Alignment
Microsoft Ignite, the company’s biggest event, is slated for November 17-21 this year in San Francisco. Launching just before the event gives Microsoft the best bang-for-the-buck for two reasons:
- Maximizes visibility and buzz.
- Allows Microsoft to showcase the new product at the event.
Key Takeaways – It just makes too much sense to announce this major release just prior to the biggest conference of the year.
Bonus Indicator
A November release allows IT teams to prepare before the year-end budget cycle, as many companies set their IT budgets on a calendar-year basis. By releasing in November, Microsoft gives IT departments enough lead time to assess what the new release means for them, adjust software/hardware needs, and justify costs in their upcoming budget planning for the new year. In short: Microsoft times its releases so organizations can plan, budget, and roll out updates smoothly, without scrambling after budgets are locked in.
Final Thoughts
If you're planning infrastructure upgrades or migrations, circle the week of November 10, 2025 on your calendar. While Microsoft could surprise us, history strongly suggests that SQL Server 2025 will go live on November 12, 2025.
Stay tuned for official confirmation as Ignite approaches and, in the meantime, explore the public preview to get hands-on with the next evolution of Microsoft’s flagship database platform.
What to Expect from SQL Server 2025
While Microsoft continues to unveil features through the preview, here are some of the most anticipated highlights:
- AI-powered performance tuning
- Enhanced hybrid capabilities with Azure
- Expanded JSON and graph processing
- Improved security and role-based access
- Flexible licensing for cloud-first deployments
